{"id":289,"date":"2023-08-21T16:40:14","date_gmt":"2023-08-21T13:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/udbankl.wordpress.com\/?p=289"},"modified":"2025-09-19T04:44:33","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T04:44:33","slug":"uganda-macroeconomic-digest-july-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/uganda-macroeconomic-digest-july-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Uganda Macroeconomic Digest &#8211; July 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/udbankl.wordpress.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0001.jpg?w=724\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-290\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Inflation Trends:<\/strong>\u00a0Uganda&#8217;s annual inflation rate fluctuated, reaching 4.9% in June 2023 but declining to 3.9% in July due to drops in core inflation and food-related inflation. Core inflation also decreased from 4.8% to 3.8% during the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/udbankl.wordpress.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0002.jpg?w=724\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-293\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Business Optimism<\/strong>: Business sentiment improved consistently from May to July 2023, with the Business Tendency Indicator (BTI) rising from 58.78 to 64.21, indicating growing confidence in the business outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Exchange Rates:<\/strong>&nbsp;The Uganda Shilling strengthened against the US Dollar in July 2023 by 1.26%, benefiting from sustained budget support and increased export earnings. However, this appreciation might impact export competitiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/udbankl.wordpress.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0003.jpg?w=724\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-296\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Interest Rates:<\/strong>&nbsp;The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained steady at 10% in July 2023, indicating a consistent monetary policy approach. Lending rates for Ugandan Shilling loans decreased from 20.14% in May to 18.41% in June 2023, suggesting potential credit relaxation, while foreign currency loan rates showed a slight increase from 8.50% to 8.83% during the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Domestic Credit:<\/strong>&nbsp;While net credit to the government increased by 2.21% in June 2023, private sector credit slightly decreased by 0.60%. Changes were observed in credit distribution across sectors, affecting investment prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/udbankl.wordpress.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0004.jpg?w=724\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-300\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trade Balance and Terms of Trade:<\/strong>\u00a0Uganda&#8217;s trade balance improved in June 2023, with a reduced deficit (from $282.08M in May to $247.43M in June 2023) and increased goods exports. The terms of trade index rose by 7.6%, signifying improved export value. However, trade imbalances with certain East African Community (EAC) nations persisted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/udbankl.wordpress.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0005.jpg?w=724\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-301\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Economic Outlook:<\/strong>\u00a0The Bank of Uganda forecasts a 6.0% to 6.5% economic rebound in the 2023\/24 fiscal year, driven by investments in various sectors. Strong external demand and government support could lead to over 7% growth, but risks like global economic weakness, lower commodity prices, and climate shocks remain. Regional trade integration and government spending are potential positive factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/udbankl.wordpress.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0006.jpg?w=724\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-303\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation Trends:\u00a0Uganda&#8217;s annual inflation rate fluctuated, reaching 4.9% in June&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/289","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=289"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/289\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4088,"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/289\/revisions\/4088"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=289"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=289"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udbl.co.ug\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=289"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}